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Posted by: dezrezsysadmin - Saturday, November 5th, 2016
A campaign has been launched by a group of cross party MPs who wish to relieve this pressure on ministers over Brexit by forcing a parliamentary vote as to whether the UKs plans post Brexit should be revealed. Nick Clegg has argued that the date given by Theresa May is a “huge setback to Brexit negotiations” and that nothing meaningful will happen until the end of 2017. Mr Clegg wants ministers to state in a document whether it foresees the UK in or out of the European market before starting the negotiations. He has stated that this is in no way an attempt to delay triggering article 50 and further stated that “it’s an attempt to ensure that the government pursues its mandate of pulling us out of the EU they do so in a workable way, a legal way and crucially in a way that doesn’t throw the single market baby out of with the EU bath water.”
At this time no definitive date has been put forward as to when Article 50 will be triggered. If the Prime Minister allows MPs to vote on her negotiation strategy then this could delay the triggering of Article 50. On the other hand cabinet minister Priti Patel does not agree and has strongly stated the government’s position “that it will not offer a running commentary”. Over the coming weeks much debate will take place as to when Article 50 will be triggered, until some sort of Agreement can been reached, it shall continue to be delayed which some argue is for the best.
According to a leading Berlin based think tank, “Brexit will shave a third off Germany’s expected economic growth next year”. An expert at the German Institute for Economic Research, Ferdinand Fitcher, believes that the German economy will only grow up to 1% in the coming year, rather than the previous estimated 1.4% due to Britain’s vote to leave the EU. It’s been stated that the vote has increased global economic uncertainty which was “toxic for investment activity”. During post Brexit discussions some said that if Britain decided to leave the EU it would cause long term ripple effects such as Germany and France having to pay more money to make up the shortfall created by Britain’s exit. This could be one of the multiple reasons why both Germany and France is so invested in not giving the UK and favoured deals.
However the UK itself has also expressed concerns about post Brexit outcomes. Sir Jon Cunliffe has argued that Britain’s international influence would be reduced by Brexit and that it would make the rest of the continent suffer too, “Europe will diminish; Europe will have a lesser voice.” Think tank, NIESR, was another group that made a prediction of the impact of the U.K. Remaining in the single market but leaving the customs union. It’s been advised that the UK could suffer a GDP fall of 4.5% if it decides to leave the EU customs union. Multiple sources have warned cabinet ministers of the risks of following a Norway style model. The Guardian has stated “that the UK would need to grow trade with its 10 largest parties outside the EU by 37% by 2030 in order to mitigate any negative impact on the trade.” Professor Thomas Sampson at the London School of Economic has shared that leaving the customs union would be bad for the economy and, as mentioned above, expressed com earns about a fall in GDP per capita. He further went on to warn that one of the consequences of leaving the customs union could result in a drop in wages; “this would mean a fall in average real wages and would lead to lower tax receipts forcing the government to cut public spending.”
Another talked about topic is that some think tanks believe that the Brexit deal must protect at risk sectors of the finance industry, advising that the UK should focus on protecting the most important sectors of the financial industry. It’s been suggested that “both the UK and the EU could lose out if Britain’s financial services sector fails to secure the right offer across the EU.” Some banks have expressed their concerns that a hard Brexit could conclude in the UK leaving the single market and therefore result in the loss of pass porting rights which allows them to sell servicing freely across the rest of the EU.
As shown above, the UK, and many other countries, have expressed concerns about leaving the EU. Many negotiations will take place over the coming months which will try to secure Britain’s future. As a country we must now unite by working together to negotiate the best possible outcome for the UK’s future outside the EU.